Dănuț PETREA¹, Ștefan BILAȘCO², Sanda ROȘCA¹, Iuliu VESCAN¹ & Ioan FODOREAN^1
1"Babeş-Bolyai" University, Faculty of Geography, 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Romania, dpetrea@geografie.ubbcluj.ro, rosca_sanda@yahoo.com, vescan@geografie.ubbcluj.ro, fioan@geografie.ubbcuj.ro
²Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca Subsidiary Geography Section, 9, Republicii Street, 400015, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, e-mail: sbilasco@yahoo.com

THE DETERMINATION OF THE LANDSLIDE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY BY GIS SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE LAND MORPHOMETRIC CHARACTERISTICS (CASE STUDY: THE TRANSYLVANIAN PLATEAU)

Full text

The diagnosis and the prediction of landslides are essential problems in territorial planning from the efficient land-use perspective. In this context there were elaborated an amount of investigation methods, but there isn`t any consensus yet. Even the methodology adopted by Romanian Governamental Decision no. 447/ 2003 is quite incomplete. The main goal of this study is to identify the probability of the damaged lands occurrence (affected by landslides) by introducing and using some variables and coefficients out of the record which will be integrated in a complex model of GIS spatial analysis. In this manner, the goal was to reduce the subjectivity level that occurs, in most of the methods, in the process of marking the variables. In the investigated territory, Transylvania Plateau, landslides are the most frequent process. These are the results of the favorable litology, hydro-climatic conditions, declivity and the fact that the landslides are still active is a result of not suitable land-use in the transition period from centralized agriculture (in communism) to a traditional agriculture, which means a considerable fragmentation of the properties. The implementation of the model in a relief unit characterized by a high morphological and morphometric variability, gives a high level of generality to the model. The value of the Relative Operating Characteristics curve (0,848) used to validate the model indicates the high predictability of the model and suggests its possibility to be used for other theories with similar morphological characteristics.